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Are there official pull rates for Japanese packs?

Published · By the Cards from Japan editors

Summary

No. The official Japanese pages for Pokémon, ONE PIECE and Yu-Gi-Oh! sets give the cards per pack, the number of card types at each rarity and, for a few products, a card guaranteed in every pack, but none gives the chance of pulling a particular rare. Every rate in circulation comes from someone counting opened packs, and how many packs they counted decides how far to trust it.

What the Pokémon and ONE PIECE pages say

Product pages for recent Pokémon and ONE PIECE sets carry the same line, ※カードはランダムに封入されています (cards are packed at random). Next to it sit the cards per pack and the price, which the pack and box specs by set lay out in tables. ONE PIECE pages add a count of card types per rarity. EB-05, for example, lists 21 rares, 9 super rares and 1 secret rare among its 75 card types. That tells you how many different cards exist at each rarity, not how often one turns up.

The only odds-like facts in writing are per-pack guarantees:

ProductPublisherWhat the page guarantees
Terastal Festival ex (SV8a)PokémonA Pokémon ex in every pack (banner text: ポケモンexが確定!)
VMAX Climax (s8b)PokémonA V, VMAX, V-UNION or SR in every pack, plus a shiny basic Energy
Black Bolt / White Flare deluxe pack (SV11)PokémonOne AR (art rare) per 35-card pack
30th CELEBRATION (M6a)PokémonOne basic Energy and one Pikachu card per pack
THE BEST vol.2 (PRB-02)ONE PIECEAn SR or higher in every pack

The MEGA Dream ex page (M2a) lists 10 cards per pack and the random-packing line and nothing more about contents. The OP-17 and EB-05 pages have no guarantee wording.

A guarantee is a floor for one pack. A promise of an AR per pack doesn't tell you whether that AR is a plain one or the SAR most buyers are hoping for; what AR and SAR mean covers the difference.

Yu-Gi-Oh! states the box, not the odds

Konami's Japanese product pages say more about the box than the Pokémon and ONE PIECE pages above do. IMMORTAL PHOENIX is 5 cards a pack and 30 packs a box, with 80 card types: 4 ultimate rares, 8 ultra rares, 10 super rares, 18 rares and 40 normals. REVOLUTION BOOSTER (rv02) is 5 cards a pack and 15 packs a box, with 69 types. Both pages say one box won't give you every card, and both say how many cards also exist as secret rares (30 in IMMORTAL PHOENIX, 48 in rv02).

That is a count of versions, not a rate. Neither page uses 封入率 (insertion rate) or 確定 (guaranteed). IMMORTAL PHOENIX boxes from the first production run also come with a bonus pack holding one card from 15 types, 14 reprinted ultra rares and a token. The Yu-Gi-Oh! rarity guide explains the rarity names these pages use.

What no page gives you

Does Japanese law require publishing odds?

Not on the Consumer Affairs Agency's page that covers chance-based sales. Its Q&A on online transactions and "card combination" (カード合わせ) defines gacha as a system that gives users items by chance, and treats items from paid gacha as the object of the sale itself rather than a premium. It bans card-combination prizes outright, and it says displays making online game items look far better than they are can break the premiums and misrepresentation act. The page has no provision requiring anyone to disclose insertion rates, and it doesn't deal with booster packs sold as products in their own right.

Reading a box-opening tally

Since tallies are the only source of rates, read what each one says about itself. Three examples, all unofficial:

Before using a tally, check the edition (Japanese or English), how many packs were opened and by whom, whether a margin of error is given, and whether the rate is per pack or per box.

Why the sample size changes the answer

PokéBeach reported TCGplayer's Prismatic Evolutions figures, from 1,200 pack openings, as one Special Illustration Rare per 45 packs. The rest of this section is our own arithmetic on that figure, not anything TCGplayer or PokéBeach published. At 1 in 45, 1,200 packs hold about 27 of those cards. With that few hits, a 95% range on the rate runs from roughly 1 in 72 to 1 in 33 packs, so two counts of the same set can disagree without either being wrong. The Mega Hyper Rare margin above, as large as the rate itself, is the extreme case.

Per box it gets looser. If a 30-pack box held an SIR at 1 in 45 per pack, and every pack were independent, about half of all boxes (0.51) would hold none. No publisher says packs are independent, so the sum shows how wide the spread could be, not what a box contains.

Sources

  1. Terastal Festival ex (SV8a) (Japanese) (checked 2026-11-03)
  2. VMAX Climax (s8b) (Japanese) (checked 2026-11-03)
  3. Black Bolt / White Flare (SV11) (Japanese) (checked 2026-11-03)
  4. MEGA Dream ex (M2a) (Japanese) (checked 2026-11-03)
  5. 30th CELEBRATION expansion pack (Japanese) (checked 2026-11-03)
  6. Pokémon Card Game notice on Pokémon Card 151, resale and oripa (Japanese) (checked 2026-11-03)
  7. ONE PIECE PRB-02 (Japanese) (checked 2026-11-03)
  8. ONE PIECE OP-17 (Japanese) (checked 2026-11-03)
  9. ONE PIECE EB-05 (Japanese) (checked 2026-11-03)
  10. Yu-Gi-Oh! OCG IMMORTAL PHOENIX (Japanese) (checked 2026-11-03)
  11. Yu-Gi-Oh! OCG REVOLUTION BOOSTER rv02 (Japanese) (checked 2026-11-03)
  12. Consumer Affairs Agency Q&A on internet transactions and card combination (Japanese) (checked 2026-11-03)
  13. TCGTalk: OP-17 pull rates from case openings (community tally) (checked 2026-11-03)
  14. Cardcosmos: ONE PIECE hit rates, Japanese edition (community figures) (checked 2026-11-03)
  15. Samurai Sword Tokyo: Pitch Black pull rates (shop post relaying TCGplayer's count) (checked 2026-11-03)
  16. PokéBeach: Prismatic Evolutions pull rates from TCGplayer's 1,200 openings (checked 2026-11-03)

Details are as published on these pages on the date above and can change. Check the official page before you buy or submit.

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